The Determinants of Effective
An International Security Program (ISP) Brown Bag Seminar with ISP/Project on Managing the Atom Research Fellow Enrico Fiorentini, Thursday, December 3, 2015 @ 12:15 PM in the Belfer Center Library, Littauer-369.
For more information, click here>
November 25, 2015
"ISIS has recently suffered massive losses of territory, income, and people. ISIS has lost 25 percent of its territory since the United States began its bombing campaign. The successful Kurdish recapture of Sinjar effectively divided ISIS territory in half and severed its access to the highway that was its main supply route. Based on data we have gathered on the ground, within ISIS territory, in 2014, ISIS was receiving up to 3,000 new recruits and volunteers per day, more than it could process at its own recruiting stations. Just before the Paris bombings, that number had decreased to 50–60 per day, not enough to offset the massive casualties sustained in Sinjar and elsewhere."
November 25, 2015
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"Even as we grapple with today's crises, we should acknowledge with gratitude the disasters that might have occurred but didn't. Another year has gone by with no nuclear weapons being detonated, no great power war breaking out, and no major economic meltdown...."
November 23, 2015
By Juliette Kayyem, Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
"...[E]very city is inherently vulnerable. What makes them vital — their very openness — also puts residents at risk. For public safety officials, what to do about threats in a city is a constant balance between the risk and the reward. And it is in this context that the decision for an indeterminate lockdown must be considered."
November 20, 2015
By Emile Simpson, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program
"...[W]e now know that the notion that regime change leads to a better democratic or a humanitarian outcome is decidedly false. From Iraq, where the West tried a heavy footprint strategy, to Libya, where it opted for a light one, the idea that Europe or the United States can actually execute democratic change by force has been exposed as a fallacy."
November 19, 2015
The National Interest
By Jill Goldenziel, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program
"In an act of utter redundancy last month, the UN Security Council passed a resolution approving an EU naval operation that was already underway. The Security Council rubber-stamped Operation Sophia, which was ostensibly devised to stop Mediterranean smugglers. But the operation is unlikely to deter smugglers from continuing their illegal trade, and might actually encourage migration by making it easier for migrants to reach Europe."
November 13, 2015
By Sven-Eric Fikenscher, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"The key to a solution to both — the quagmire that has unfolded in Syria and the threat posed by Islamic terrorism — is to deprive the terrorist groups of their main propaganda tools and to form a new Syrian government that excludes Assad (and his foreign Shiite allies) but includes representatives from all of the non-fundamentalist groups involved in the civil war."
November 16, 2015
The New York Times
By Kelly M. Greenhill, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"...[T]ightening migration policies would do nothing to address the fundamental underlying causes of terrorist attacks: namely, the appeal of radicalization to a small, but committed, segment of the marginalized and disaffected already living within the European Union, many of whom are citizens. While tragically misguided, participation in such attacks can give psychologically disenfranchised individuals a sense of power and belonging. However effective and proactive law enforcement and counterterrorism units may be, until the sources of alienation and discontent are vanquished, more homegrown terrorists are likely to emerge."